Posted by Dave on 03/05/08 at 01:42:09 pm
Categories: Barack Obama, Campaign 2008

No, I don't really have a hangover. But I am tired, after staying up way too late to get the bad news.

Yesterday was a very good day for Hillary Clinton, and one that needed very, very badly. She needed to have a big day in order to remain somewhat viable, and the had a huge day (well... kind of; I will get to that in a moment). She one three of the four states from yesterday, and laid the foundation of a narrative her spin that because she won the "big" states, the Super Delegates should move in her direction. This possibly is a valid narrative, at least in the possibility that it could work to convince the super delegates.

With that said, and while recognizing the strong day that Clinton had yesterday, it is important to remember that she is only to gain somewhere between 10-15 delegates on Obama, meaning that Obama still has a very comfortable delegate lead. Further, Obama is still leading the popular vote, even if Florida is included. So while the news for Obama was not good, it definitely was not awful either.

Obama is still winning, and he is willing by a large margin. And Obama still has to be the favorite.

The next seven weeks will be interesting, as we will be seeing obscene amounts of resources being used up, mainly in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is a big state, and one that clearly favors Clinton in its demographics. But with such a large lead-up to the PA primary, I believe that we have little insight into how it will end up playing out. Obama lost in TX and OH, but he closed the gaps. He is currently trailing in PA by approximately 10%, according to polls. Can he do the same in PA - closing the gap after spending significant time and money there?

If Obama wins PA, he will get the nomination. If Clinton wins PA, it will go to the convention, leaving it in the hands of the super delegates.

The next several weeks will be political theater at its finest.

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