Posted by Dave on 03/04/08 at 10:41:14 am
Categories: Barack Obama, Campaign 2008

Today is obviously a very big day for anyone following that Democratic presidential race.

Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont will all cast their votes (or feet, in the case of caucuses) for who they want to run against John McCain in November.

Barack Obama is going to win Vermont, possibly by 30% or more.

Hillary Clinton will probably win Rhode Island by 10% or more, but I wouldn't be surprised if the gap is less than 10%.

And there is the two big states - Ohio and Texas:

• Clinton is leading in Ohio by an average of 6-7%. I predict that it will be close than that - withing 3-4%, but Clinton will win.
• Clinton is leading in Texas by a smaller margin - 1-2%, and I predict that Obama wins by at least 5%, and wins an even larger percentage of the pledged delegates.

Of course... I am pulling a lot of these predictions out of nowhere. BUT... Obama has consistently out-performed the polls, especially over the last few weeks.

But Obama has also had a really tough week on NAFTA, Farrakhan, and other issues. So it will definitely be interesting.

And you all know what I am hoping for - a decisive enough win tonight for Obama that Clinton has no choice but to drop out.

| Permalink